Conversations about minimum wage focus most often on prices at the checkout or the cost to business owners. But there is a deeper, quieter calculation happening in our communities that has nothing to do with the price of goods and everything to do with the price of public safety.
In the world of economics, crime is often a rational calculation. According to a recent policy analysis by Scioto Analysis, raising Oklahoma’s minimum wage to $15 could prevent nearly 7,000 crimes a year by changing the math of that one calculation.
Here is how the “Opportunity Cost” of crime works—and why a higher wage makes our streets safer.
The Economics of the “Illegal Market”
Think of every individual as a rational actor choosing between two “markets”: the legal job market and the illegal market.
Under a simple economic model, a person weighs the expected value of both. The value of the illegal market is a gamble: how much can I gain, versus how likely am I to be caught and how severe is the punishment? The value of the legal market, however, is much simpler: It is the hourly wage.
When the legal wage is low (like Oklahoma’s current $7.25), the “opportunity cost” of committing a crime is also low. If you are caught and incarcerated, you aren’t “losing” a high-paying career; you are losing a struggle to make ends meet.
Tilting the Scales
When the minimum wage rises to $15, the “cost” of committing a crime suddenly spikes. By choosing a life of crime, an individual is now “giving up” a guaranteed, significantly higher income.
The Scioto Analysis report suggests that by raising the floor to $15, Oklahoma makes the legal path more attractive than the illegal one. We aren’t just “punishing” crime more—we are incentivizing lawful work. For many, especially young and low-wage workers, the higher wage provides the “individual utility” that makes a 9-to-5 job a better bet than a risky life on the street.
Reducing “Rent-Seeking” Behavior
Economists often call crime a form of “rent-seeking.” In a healthy economy, people create value to get a “slice of the pie.” Rent-seekers, however, try to take a slice of the pie without contributing to it, which actually shrinks the pie for everyone else.
Criminal activity transfers wealth from victims to perpetrators while forcing society to spend billions on policing, court costs, and security systems. By raising the minimum wage, we encourage people to be value-creators instead of rent-seekers. We grow the economic pie rather than just fighting over the crumbs.
Beyond the Wallet: The Stress Factor
It’s not just about the math; it’s about the mindset. The report highlights that higher minimum wages are associated with fewer feelings of “extreme distress.”
Financial desperation creates a high-pressure environment where impulsive, high-risk decisions—including crime—become more likely. When people have a “living wage,” that economic stress begins to dissipate. A person who can afford their groceries and utility bills is a person who has something to lose.
The Bottom Line
Raising the minimum wage to $15 isn’t just a labor policy; it’s a public safety strategy. By increasing the opportunity cost of crime, we aren’t just changing what’s in people’s pockets—we’re changing the choices they make when they wake up in the morning.
As Oklahoma voters look toward 2026, the question isn’t just about the cost of labor. It’s about whether we want to invest in a higher floor for workers or continue paying the high social cost of an empty legal path.
Read the entire report here.
